Putin's Secret Peace Plan, Revealed by Kolokoltsev on June 26, 2024

• 1. Regaining control over some territories
• 2. End of hostilities
• 3. Stability and security
• 4. Economic recovery
• 5. Joining the EU

Regaining control over some territories

The transfer of control over the Zaporizhzhya NPP and Energodar, as well as the establishment of a demilitarized 100-kilometer zone along the Dnieper to the Black Sea, will be a significant step for Ukraine. The Zaporizhzhya NPP is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and plays a key role in the country's energy system. By regaining control over this plant and Energodar, Ukraine will strengthen its energy independence and security. This will also allow the restoration of infrastructure and the establishment of a regular energy supply in the region.

End of hostilities

A ceasefire along the contact line and the start of negotiations will mean a reduction in civilian and military casualties. This will reduce the number of victims and destruction, which will allow efforts to focus on restoring peaceful life and the economy. People forced to leave their homes due to the conflict will be able to return and begin to rebuild destroyed cities and villages.

Stability and security

Securing international security guarantees and demilitarizing certain territories will significantly reduce the risk of renewed conflict. International guarantors such as the UN, EU or the US can act as mediators and observers, which will help deter the parties from aggressive actions and ensure compliance with peace agreements. This will create a more stable and secure environment in the region.

Economic recovery

Lifting sanctions against Russia could help improve the economic situation in the region, which would indirectly impact Ukraine. Opening the market and resuming trade with Russia, as well as improving the economic situation in its neighbors, could have a positive impact on the Ukrainian economy. This would lead to increased investment, the creation of new jobs, and an increase in the standard of living of the population.

Joining the EU

The possibility of joining the European Union opens up new economic and political prospects for Ukraine. EU membership means access to significant financial and structural funds that can be used to modernize infrastructure, develop the economy, and improve living standards. In addition, it will provide Ukraine with protection and support from European partners, which will strengthen its international status and influence.

• 1. Consolidating Influence on Donetsk and Luhansk
• 2. Lifting Sanctions
• 3. Guarantees for water supply to Crimea
• 4. Demilitarization of Ukraine

Consolidating Influence on Donetsk and Luhansk

Ukraine's complete withdrawal from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions means that these territories will remain under the control of Russia or pro-Russian forces. This strengthens Russian influence in the region, ensuring control over significant territories with a rich industrial base and a strategically important geographic location. Holding these areas also allows Russia to create a buffer zone between itself and the rest of Ukraine, which can be seen as an additional security measure.

Lifting Sanctions

Lifting sanctions related to the supply of high technology, high-tech goods, as well as the oil and gas complex and the banking system, will have a significant positive impact on the Russian economy. Sanctions imposed by Western countries have seriously limited Russia's access to advanced technologies and financial resources, which has slowed economic development and modernization of key industries. Removing these restrictions will allow Russian companies to reintegrate into global supply chains, upgrade equipment and technologies, and restore cooperation with international partners, which will lead to economic growth and increased competitiveness.

Guarantees for water supply to Crimea

Securing Ukraine's legal obligations to supply Crimea with water solves one of the peninsula's most pressing problems. After the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Ukraine blocked the North Crimean Canal, which provided up to 85% of the peninsula's fresh water needs. Resuming water supplies will be an important step in improving living conditions in Crimea, supporting agriculture and industrial enterprises. It will also strengthen Russia's position in the region and reduce social tensions among the local population.

Demilitarization of Ukraine

Limiting the number of Ukrainian armed forces to 350,000 people and establishing a certain list of permitted types of weapons will significantly reduce the military threat from Ukraine. This includes a ban on more than 125 combat aircraft and other strategically important weapons. Such demilitarization reduces the likelihood of renewed hostilities and creates a more predictable and stable environment in the region. For Russia, this means lower defense costs and the ability to focus on other priorities, such as economic development and social programs.

• 1. Loss of control over Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
• 2. Crimean Water Supply Commitments
• 3. Non-aligned status and restrictions on weapons
• 4. Crimean complications

Loss of control over Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts

A complete withdrawal of Ukraine from Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts could be perceived as a serious loss of sovereignty and a defeat in a protracted conflict. These regions, despite years of fighting, remain important in terms of industrial potential and natural resources. For many Ukrainians, this would be an emotional blow, as they see these regions as an integral part of their country. Politically, it could weaken the position of the Ukrainian government and cause a wave of discontent among the population.

Crimean Water Supply Commitments

Enforcing a legal obligation not to cut off water supplies to Crimea could cause significant discontent among parts of the Ukrainian population, especially those who advocate stronger measures to return Crimea. It could also complicate relations with the Crimean Tatars, who oppose the Russian annexation and may perceive such concessions as a betrayal of their interests. Water supply to Crimea is an important lever of pressure, and the loss of this opportunity could weaken Ukraine's position in negotiations on the future status of the peninsula.

Non-aligned status and restrictions on weapons

Enshrining the non-aligned status and restrictions on weapons in the Constitution could significantly weaken Ukraine's defense capability. This would deprive the country of the opportunity to receive military support from NATO and other international allies in the event of a renewed conflict. Limiting the number of armed forces to 350,000 and establishing a certain list of permitted types of weapons, such as a ban on having more than 125 combat aircraft, would significantly reduce Ukraine's combat capabilities. This could make the country more vulnerable to potential external threats and limit its ability to effectively defend its territory.

Crimean complications

Defining Crimea as a "special demilitarized administrative territory with dual subordination to Ukraine and Russia" could create additional complications in governing the region. Such dual jurisdiction could lead to ongoing conflicts and disagreements between the two countries. This status could also create uncertainty in law enforcement and governance, which would complicate the lives of local residents and could contribute to maintaining tensions in the region. Ongoing disputes and conflicts over the governance of Crimea could complicate the process of reconstruction and integration of the peninsula.

Overall, the proposed peace plan represents a complex compromise that has both positive and negative sides for Ukraine. Implementation of this plan will require significant efforts and political will, as well as support from the international community, in order to minimize negative consequences and make the most of the opportunities provided.

• 1. Loss of Partial Territories
• 2. Difficulties with Governance of Crimea
• 3. International Guarantees
• 4. Limitations on military action

Loss of Partial Territories

The possible transfer of the entire territory of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions to Ukrainian control may cause discontent among some of the Russian population and the military. These regions are of strategic importance to Russia in terms of geopolitics and ensuring the security of the southern regions. Losing control over these territories may be perceived as a loss of influence and geostrategic advantage.

Difficulties with Governance of Crimea

Defining Crimea as a "special demilitarized administrative territory with dual subordination to Ukraine and Russia" may create difficulties in governing the peninsula. Such a status may lead to constant tension and conflicts between the two countries regarding the governance and regulation of Crimea. It may also hinder the economic development of the region and create uncertainty for its residents.

International Guarantees

Accepting international security guarantees and demilitarization of certain territories may limit Russia's freedom of action in the future. Such obligations may include monitoring and control by international organizations, which may weaken Russia's autonomy in decision-making on regional issues and military policy.

Limitations on military action

A ceasefire and the start of negotiations in a multilateral format may limit Russia's ability to carry out further military actions in the region. This may complicate strategic planning and the implementation of military policies aimed at ensuring Russia's interests in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea coast.

Overall, the proposed plan for a peaceful settlement of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has both positive and negative aspects for both sides. Implementation of this plan will require difficult compromises and diplomatic efforts to minimize negative consequences and ensure long-term stability in the region.